Last week (6/12-6/16),Can you buy Monero in the USA? the US Dollar Index fell by 1.2%. The British Pound and Australian Dollar performed the best, rising by 1.9%; while the Japanese Yen performed poorly, falling by 1.8%.
【Source: MacroMicro Date2023/6/12-2023/6/16】
【Source: MacroMicro Date2023/1/1-2023/6/16】
On June 15th, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates by 25 basis points in line with market expectations. ECB President Lagarde stated at a press conference that it is very likely they will continue to raise interest rates in July.
Following the meeting, market expectations for a rate hike increased slightly. The expected rate hike for July rose from 20 basis points to 28 basis points, and the final rate is expected to reach 3.98% in October 2023, which is higher than the pre-meeting rate of 3.86%. As a result, the euro benefited, rising 1.7% last week.
【Source: Bloomberg】
The trend of the euro against the US dollar is mainly driven by the difference in monetary policy expectations between the European and American central banks. At last week's FOMC meeting, the Fed suspended interest rate hikes as expected, although the dot plot suggests that there may be two more rate hikes in the future, the market only expects one more rate hike in the US this year at most. In contrast, the ECB is more hawkish.
Mitrade Analyst：
The trend of the Euro is influenced by multiple factors, including changes in expectations for interest rate hikes by the European and American central banks, relative economic performance between Europe and America, and overall market risk appetite. From a monetary policy perspective, the Euro is expected to continue to receive support and further appreciate.
Technically, the Euro has broken through its 20-day moving average and is hovering near the previous resistance level of 1.09. If it can successfully break through this level this week, it may approach the next level of resistance at 1.10. On the other hand, if it fails to hold the key support level of 1.09, the risk of a decline will increase.
【Source：TradingView】
On June 16th, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced its decision to maintain the Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy, as expected. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda remained dovish, stating that the risk of failing to achieve sustained 2% inflation was greater than the risk of an inflation overshoot.
Following the announcement, the yen sharply depreciated, falling more than 1% in a single day. It lost about 1.8% in total last week, becoming the weakest major currency globally.
ING noted that the BOJ's unanimous decision to maintain ultra-loose monetary policy was due to its ongoing search for clearer signs of sustained inflation. However, the pressures of higher-than-expected inflation, continued robust economic recovery, and a weaker yen are expected to eventually persuade the BOJ to modify its YCC policy in July.
Mitrade Analyst：
Due to the Bank of Japan's relatively greater willingness to bear the cost of high inflation, it will continue to maintain loose monetary policy in the short term, which will further devalue the yen. However, in the long term, the depreciation of the yen will be limited due to the possibility of revising the YCC policy in the second half of the year.
From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY has broken through the key level of 139.5 and is oscillating near the previous resistance level of 141.8. Moving averages indicate stronger bullish momentum, and it is expected that the USD/JPY will break through the 142.7 level in the future.
【Source：TradingView】
